We now have only six games to go over the next week in the Big Bash League, and this means the number of possible finals arrangements is becoming much more manageable. There are 64 different outcomes depending on who wins each of those six matches.
This is the table as it stands now:
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | NRR |
| Melbourne Stars | 6 | 4 | 2 | +0.786 |
| Brisbane Heat | 6 | 4 | 2 | +0.557 |
| Perth Scorchers | 7 | 4 | 3 | +0.331 |
| Sydney Sixers | 7 | 4 | 3 | -1.062 |
| Sydney Thunder | 7 | 3 | 4 | -0.097 |
| Hobart Hurricanes | 7 | 3 | 4 | -0.179 |
| Melbourne Renegades | 6 | 2 | 4 | -0.003 |
| Adelaide Strikers | 6 | 2 | 4 | -0.157 |
In the case of teams on the same number of points, the net run rate will be used to break ties.
The teams have been split into four tiers. The Stars and Heat stand in a clear lead having won four matches and with two to come. The Renegades and Strikers are clearly at the bottom of the table, with only two wins, but with two matches to come. The remaining four teams have only one match left to come, with the Sixers and Scorchers on four wins and the Thunder and Hurricanes on three wins.
In this post, I’ll show the proportion of scenarios where a team would clearly make the finals, clearly miss out, or find themselves in a tie to be broken by their net run rate. It should be noted that I’m not attempting to judge the chance that each team will win any of the matches – just the possible outcomes if they win or lose.